by Jeremy Brecher, originally published 04 February 2025 on Labor Network for Sustainability’s Strike! Commentaries, accessible here: https://www.labor4sustainability.org/articles/the-trump-onslaught-what-we-must-prepare-for/
Listen to the audio version >>
Donald Trump and his entourage are so confused, conflicted, and detached from reality that it is difficult to anticipate what they will actually attempt and how much they will be able to carry their intentions through. We know their intentions include eliminating all barriers to their power; scapegoating of stigmatized groups; redistribution of wealth and income upward; and a war on the world to impose US domination and environmental destruction. Their efforts to realize these objectives will result in enormous destruction. Those efforts are also likely to result in a substantial pushback that could either overcome the MAGA project or simply fade away in the face of repression and despair.
LGBT Solidarity Rally, Feb. 4, 2017. Photo credit: Mathiaswasik, Flickr, CC by-SA 2.0.
It is impossible to know whether the Trump regime will rapidly self-destruct; successfully impose a reign of terror that dominates the U.S. for years or decades to come; or deadlock indefinitely with anti-MAGA forces. In the best case, we will face an exaggerated version of the first Trump administration combined with the broad right-wing program represented by Project 2025. In the worst case, we will face a violent full-scale fascist assault on every aspect of American life. We need to be prepared for either or for something in-between – and for how to survive and overcome them.
Unknowns: Known and Unknown
Trump has been inaugurated into a world order in polycrisis. Unipolar US hegemony has been replaced by multiplying wars, the rise of Great Power conflict, and the decline of international cooperation inside and outside the UN. The polycrisis has also been marked by fragmentation of the global economy and Great Power struggle to dominate global economic networks. International climate protection has become a transparent sham, and major political forces, including Trump himself, deny the reality of climate change. The remaining institutions of democratic rule have been shredded by a transition to transparent plutocracy on the one hand and the rise of movements, parties, and national leaders who resemble the classic fascists of a century ago – similarly the product of burgeoning global disorder. The probable course and effects of Trump and of MAGA must be considered in the light of the polycrisis.[1]
The past dozen years have witnessed the rise of movements in many of countries that resemble the fascism of 1920-1945. They manifest smashing of democratic institutions, contempt for constitutions and laws, utilization of violence for political purposes, scapegoating of racial, ethnic, gender, political, and other minorities, hostility to transnational cooperation and “globalism,” authoritarian dictatorship, and a variety of related characteristics. To include the many manifestations of this phenomenon, rather than exclusively those who proclaim themselves fascists, they may well be characterized as the new “para-fascists.” Donald Trump is a paragon of this new para-fascism. His rise to power has coincided with that of para-fascists around the world. He admires and imitates them, and his behavior in office may in many ways resemble theirs.
Notwithstanding his claims to fix the problems people are facing, Trump in power will only aggravate them. The rubbishing of safeguards provided by democratic governance will amplify irrational policymaking and exacerbate popular feelings of powerlessness and alienation. Outlandish increases in military spending, designed to implement the fantasy of renewed US global domination, will lead instead to ruinous nuclear and conventional arms races. Trump’s style of provocation, deliberate unpredictability, bullying, and unrestrained folly will lead to intensified conflict, strange shifts in alliances, deliberately aggravated chaos, and wars. His energy policies will put climate catastrophe on steroids. This exacerbated polycrisis will produce a self-amplifying feedback loop that will increase the fear and anger that are prime sources – and prime resources — of Trumpism.
Protester against Trump, July 13, 2017. Photo credit: Alisdare Hickson, Wikimedia Commons, CC by-SA 2.0.
Trump’s behavior is consistently inconsistent. It is impulsive, disruptive, shameless, perfidious, and undeterred by predictably disastrous consequences. Trump’s actions, far from achieving their purported objectives, will only compound the chaos of the polycrisis. Conversely, the polycrisis will only compound the irrationality, self-contradiction, and foolishness of Trump’s actions. Trump may propose, but the polycrisis will dispose.
We simply can’t know at this point what will be the balance between extravagant, flamboyant Trump gestures vs. the calculated, steadfast pursuit of the Project 2025 program. The common assertion that the second Trump regime has been well planned and is guided and executed by experienced experts was made a mockery of long before inauguration day. As Karl Rove (of all people) put it in The Wall Street Journal, “Inadequate vetting, impatience, disregard for qualifications and a thirst for revenge have created chaos and controversy for Mr. Trump before he’s even in office. The price for all this will be missed opportunities to shore up popular support for the incoming president.”[2]
Fascist regimes historically have been marked by radically shifting social bases rather than stable interests. Their policies and actions gyrate opportunistically to court social sectors whose support they can recruit, at least momentarily. Trump’s whole political career illustrates this tendency, most recently exhibited by the ascendancy of the “Tech Bros” in his administration. This unpredictability is aggravated by Trump’s personal opportunism and erratically shifting passions and attention. In assembling his cabinet and other top officials, Trump has surrounded himself with yes-men and yes-women who guarantee folly.
A good deal of post-election commentary has aimed to determine why the electorate voted for Trump. Here, too, uncertainty reigns. Specific factors often listed include inflation, Democrats abandoning the working class, racism, sexism, generalized fear of immigration and other perceived threats, many of them rooted in the polycrisis, or simply gullibility to the Trumpian Big Lie.
While all of these have some credibility, it may well be impossible to provide a valid explanation of the vote as a whole, let alone what it portends for elections in the future. But a crucial reality is highlighted by a post-election Reuters/Ipsos poll in mid-December: Barely 40 percent of Americans said their opinion of president-elect Trump was favorable. 55 percent stated that their opinion of him was unfavorable.[3] That indicates a great vulnerability of the Trump regime if its opponents are able to take advantage of his weaknesses.
Trump’s mental and physical health, such as they are, are likely to deteriorate further over the course of his term of office. There is a Constitutional process for removing incapacitated presidents from office, but such a scenario is hardly likely to be voluntarily accepted by Trump or imposed against his will by his coterie as long as he is conscious. Were he replaced by J.D. Vance, unpredictability would only increase.
These known unknowns are likely to be aggravated by a plethora of unknown unknowns. Strategic assessment of the coming MAGA era must be made within this overall context of uncertainty.
[1] For further analysis of Trump and the polycrisis, see Jeremy Brecher, “Trump, Trumpism, and the Polycrisis,” Labor Network for Sustainability, November 23, 2024. https://www.labor4sustainability.org/strike/trump-trumpism-and-the-polycrisis/
[2] Karl Rove, “Trump Sends Clowns to Cabinet Confirmation Circus,” Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-sends-clowns-to-confirmation-circus-mishandled-nominations-gaetz-hegseth-gabbard-not-his-only-mistakes-c43df814?mod=hp_opin_pos_0
[3] Tara Suter, “Less than half of Americans say opinion of Trump is favorable: Poll,” The Hill, December 17, 2024. Less than half of Americans say opinion of Trump is favorable: Poll