Listen to the audio version >>

The use of sun, wind, and water rather than fossil fuels to produce energy is transforming economies around the world. How far has that transformation already gone and what is likely to be its future?

 

 

The idea that new, green technologies would save the world from climate catastrophe has long been a staple of much of the environmental movement. It has also been a central argument of those who have said we should wait to implement climate protection until those new technologies have matured. Now that moment is here. Often referred to as the “Greentech revolution,” a historic change in the production and consumption of energy is already revolutionizing the world. In this Strike! commentary I will sketch the Greentech revolution in energy production; in the next I will survey the parallel transformation in energy consumption. Another will evaluate the ambiguous effects of President Donald Trump’s efforts to roll back the Greentech revolution. Further commentaries will examine Greentech’s implications for the people of the United States.

The Iran war is having a significant impact on world energy markets. But it is likely, if anything, to accelerate the adoption of Greentech energy as nations try to free themselves from dependence on fossil fuels – and the nations that control it.

A recent report from the UN lays out the dimensions of the Greentech revolution:

With spectacular cost declines and manufacturing capacity growth, the global deployment of solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs) has exceeded even the most optimistic projections and continues to advance exponentially. The world is poised for a breakthrough in the rapid and widespread transition from energy systems dominated by fossil fuels to those dominated by homegrown, low-cost renewables.

Greentech production and consumption will transform not only our energy system, but our entire society. The US is currently not only eschewing this transformation, but under President Trump and the MAGA movement it is actively trying to reverse it. Not only will that prove futile; it forgoes the new vistas of possibility that the Greentech revolution opens up for the US as well as the rest of the world.

Greentech includes varied technologies that will make possible a wide range of choices for what kind of future we want.  It can support large and small, centralized and decentralized economic and social forms.

Fossil free energy

 

 

The Greentech revolution is not simply something that is predicted for the future; it is happening right now.

The vanguard of the Greentech revolution is the generation of electricity. Solar and wind power have become the fastest growing sources of electricity in history. 2024 was the 23rd year in a row that renewable capacity additions set a new record. Growth in renewable energy is far outpacing that in fossil fuels in the power sector. In 2024, renewables worldwide made up 92% of all new electricity capacity additions and 74% of electricity generation growth. Between 2015 and 2024, annual electricity capacity of renewables increased by 140% while that of fossil fuels increased by 16%. As a share of global annual electricity generation, renewables increased by 81% while fossil fuels increased by 13%. Renewables are now nearly equal to fossil fuels in installed electricity capacity. And the rate of installation itself is accelerating: In the first six months of 2025, the world added 380 GW of new solar capacity — 64% higher than the 232 GW installed during the same period in 2024.

The explosive growth of Greentech electricity is driven by its declining cost – especially in comparison to fossil fuel energy. By 2023, an estimated 96% of newly installed, utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) and onshore wind capacity had lower power generation costs than new coal and gas plants. 75% of new wind and solar PV plants provided cheaper power than existing fossil fuel facilities. Money could be saved – and is being saved – by halting all new fossil fuel investment and building new renewable capacity instead; money could be saved by closing down three quarters of all existing fossil fuel facilities and replacing them with new wind and solar PV plants.

To compare different costs of generating electricity, energy experts use a formula called “average levelized cost of electricity” (LCOE). This is a fancy term for electricity’s average cost over a new facility’s lifetime. According to IRENA’s 2024 “Renewable Power Generation Costs,” electricity from new utility-scale solar PV in 2024 was 41% cheaper than the least-cost new fossil fuel-fired option.  than the least-cost new fossil fuel-fired option. Onshore wind was 53% cheaper than fossil fuels. 91% of new renewable projects offered cheaper electricity than the lowest-cost newly built fossil fuel alternative.

This reduction in cost is not a blip but the acceleration of a long-term trend. The cost of utility-scale solar PV has fallen by 80–90% each decade since 1960, whereas the costs of fossil fuels, while fluctuating wildly, had no long-term decrease. According to the thinktank RMI, just in the last decade “clean-tech costs have fallen by up to 80%, while investment is up nearly tenfold and solar generation has risen twelvefold.” According to Our World in Data, in 2009 renewable energy was more than three times as expensive as coal. Now a new solar plant is almost three times cheaper than a new coal plant.

Not surprisingly, the Greentech revolution has led to a shift in global energy investment. Global annual clean energy investments first surpassed those for fossil fuels in 2016. Investment in fossil free technologies worldwide passed $2 trillion in 2024 – $800 billion more than for fossil fuels. Fossil free investment Fossil free investment has increased 70% in the last decade. The IEA projected that clean energy investments would reach around $2.2 trillion in 2025, while fossil fuel investments will total $1.1 trillion. This means that, for every dollar going to fossil fuel production, two dollars are invested in clean energy.

A fossil free future?

 

 

What about the near-term future? According to the most recent IEA report on renewables, global renewable power capacity is expected to double between now and 2030. This is roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s power generation capacity combined to the global energy mix. The increase in solar PV capacity is set to more than double over the next five years. Global capacity for wind power is expected to nearly double by 2030.

Nor is the advance of renewable energy technology likely to end soon. Current innovations include perovskite cells, which are cheaper to produce and absorb a broader spectrum of sunlight than silicon ones, and transparent solar panels that can be integrated into windows and facades of buildings.

The Greentech revolution opens a door for the rapid, radical elimination of fossil fuel burning and extraction. But we still have to go through that door. In reality, the rate of GHG emissions is still rising and so is the rate of global warming. The average level of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere climbed by the largest amount on record between 2023 and 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It was the largest increase since modern measurements began in 1957. 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the Earth’s hottest years in recorded history.

To reach international climate goals, the growth of Greentech and the shrinking of fossil fuel industries needs to proceed much faster. According to the IEA, “The annual investment required in renewable power still needs to double to achieve a tripling of installed renewable capacity by 2030.” This needs to be accompanied by rising spending on “grids, storage and other forms of flexibility” to ensure “secure and cost-effective utilization of this capacity.” Spending on efficiency and electrification needs to “almost triple” within the next five years to deliver a 4% annual energy intensity improvement by the end of the decade.

The Greentech revolution can facilitate a reduction of GHG emissions and thereby a slowing of global warming, but it will by no means do so at a rate that will halt even the most devastating consequences of climate change. Simply adding Greentech to an “all-the-above” energy mix will do little to reduce climate devastation. That will require halting the extraction and burning of fossil fuels – decommissioning fossil fuel infrastructure and leaving fossil fuels in the ground.

The Greentech revolution doesn’t guarantee such a result, but it does make it far more feasible. The burgeoning expansion of manufacturing capacity for producing renewable infrastructure provides an example. Non-fossil fuel sources are expected to meet all global demand growth out to 2027, 95% with renewables. Existing and announced solar PV and battery projects are already enough to achieve the global climate goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030.

The transition to renewable energy can be further accelerated by deliberate action. The IEA’s report “Strategies for Affordable and Fair Clean Energy Transitions” details how targeted policies and investments can reduce the operating costs of the global energy system by more than half over the next decade compared with a trajectory based on current policies. That would open a pathway towards global net-zero emissions by 2050.

This series focuses on Greentech that uses energy from the classic renewable sources: sun, wind, and water, and on technologies that reduce the amount of energy needed. It eschews technologies that are likely to extend rather than terminate fossil fuel burning, such as carbon capture and most hydrogen; it similarly eschews technologies like nuclear energy that involve high costs, serious environmental impacts, and catastrophic risks.

Like any revolution, the Greentech revolution is marked by “uneven and combined development.” Some technologies, such as solar, wind, and battery storage, are racing ahead; others, like building efficiency and air transportation, are lagging behind. Similarly, some countries, notably China but also Pakistan, India, and Brazil, are racing ahead while others, most obviously the United States but also Russia and Saudi Arabia, are dragging their heels or intentionally trying to tank the Greentech revolution. As we will see in subsequent commentaries in this series, their success would mean disaster for the American people. But it is far from certain that they will be able to prevent America’s self-liberation from fossil fuels.